Research and judgment: where is the new growth point of cross-border logistics when the "epidemic dividend" subsides?

Source of the following article / cross border e-commerce logistics baixiaosheng (id:kjbaixiaoshen)



Author / wangyongqiang







During the epidemic in the past two years, the advantage of relying on resource-based dividends is slowly fading. Many enterprises are facing shortage this year, and have begun to look for the second curve of growth, new markets, new channels, new products and new customer positioning.



01




Underlying logic of industry growth

The essence of business growth for cross-border e-commerce, cross-border logistics and related peripheral service providers is platform bonus and flow bonus.



1. Dividends of FBA logistics enterprises

First, the development bonus of FBA logistics enterprises mainly starts from 2015.

After 2015, Amazon has increased its investment attraction for its global store projects in China. With the increasing demand for Amazon FBA's first-trip cargo transportation, FBA's air, Shanghai and Tiepai channels have been applied and continue to grow.

In the seven years from 2015 to 2022, FBA head logistics service providers in the field of cross-border e-commerce, as well as various peripheral service providers providing Amazon sellers with VAT tax, intellectual property, trademark patent, marketing promotion, overseas collection, etc., are all beneficiaries of Amazon platform dividends.

Therefore, the profits earned by all FBA logistics enterprises are essentially the flow dividends of Amazon platform.

Second, the rapid growth of FBA's first journey cargo volume makes the upstream transport capacity supply end enterprises become the beneficiaries of platform traffic dividends, such as Masson express, Yixing express, etc. In addition, it has also led to the continuous maturity and improvement of China Europe Qantas and other niche channels.

Third, Amazon FBA's overseas personalized demand for first trip logistics has attracted a large number of overseas Chinese to enter this industry. Examples include various local services such as overseas warehousing and transfer, return and standard exchange, customs clearance, tax planning, truck fleet, etc.

Service providers benefit from choosing the Amazon platform. Again, choice is greater than effort!



2. dividends of direct line enterprises

There are about two waves of dividends for direct lines.

The first wave of dividends was from 2008 to 2015. With the rise of direct delivery platforms such as eBay and express, a large number of small and light products with low customer unit price needed cheap logistics services. At that time, postal logistics services accounted for half of the direct delivery lines.

China Post's surface mail, registration and e-mail products, as well as the postal rights products of four or five UPU countries around China, are popular in the market.

Therefore, from 2008 to 2015, it was also known as the world of postal services. Postal small package products accounted for about 8 years of dividends in the direct delivery market of light and small pieces and low value of e-commerce platforms. Enterprises with postal resources or acting as agents of postal products have seized this wave of dividends.

The second wave of bonus is that after 2015, with more and more sellers with high passenger unit price, brand and self built stations, sellers have higher and higher requirements on the timeliness of direct distribution line logistics services.

In this context, many enterprises have seized the pain points of customers' needs under the UPU multilateral agreement system, such as long transportation time, troublesome track query, difficult receipt confirmation, inconvenient return and replacement of postal parcels, to create a special line parcel service with high sex price ratio for high customer unit price, brand type and self built station sellers.

It has integrated the advantages of commercial express delivery and the original postal network, solved a series of problems such as transparence of transportation trajectory, direct flight of air trunk lines, commercial customs clearance of destination countries, self built overseas after-sales service system, and gradually formed its own direct commercial special line small package product channel. In the 5-6 years after 2015, a large number of such enterprises have emerged and grown rapidly in the market.

For example, the rapid growth of yuntu logistics, Diyi logistics, Wanbang express and other enterprises is after 2015. These enterprises have also grown with the rise of emerging platforms, including wish, Joom, shop and other platforms. The rise of each platform in the past few years has led to the growth of a number of direct hair small package special line enterprises.

The above is the bottom logic of the rapid growth of direct delivery small package special line enterprises in the past few years.



02




New growth point of cross-border Logistics

Looking back, we can see the future. In the past few years, many practitioners have benefited from the industry dividend. Now, the "epidemic dividend" has gradually subsided, the industry has returned to the new normal, and the ecological pattern is facing adjustment. Where will the new growth point be?



First, the essence of industry growth is platform dividend and traffic dividend. Therefore, we must analyze what changes and transitions have taken place in today's traffic and orders between different platforms and different business types?

There is a competition and cooperation relationship between e-commerce platforms, and the traffic is always changing. When a platform falls, new platforms are bound to rise. Only by grasping the essence of the changing law of business flow can we seize the opportunity of logistics. Therefore, the business will not be bad if we provide services for platforms with rising traffic.

Although the current traffic and order volume of mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, eBay, wish and express have shown a downward trend, the traffic and order volume of some emerging e-commerce platforms, such as Shopify, Mercado Libre and sheen, still show an increasing trend.

In particular, Shein has become the second largest e-commerce platform in the world after Amazon, with a daily logistics demand of at least 2 million direct orders.

If logistics supporting services are provided for such e-commerce platforms, relevant logistics enterprises will still achieve good growth in 2022. Only when customers grow, enterprises will grow. Therefore, enterprises must first analyze the changes of business flow, and then carry out targeted logistics layout accordingly.

Second, the general trend of brands going to sea has not changed. Many local brands in China want to go to sea with the help of cross-border e-commerce models, including Gree, Midea, Haier, etc.

Nowadays, if domestic offline famous brands want to go abroad, they are bound to need service providers that can provide customized logistics solutions. This is a good opportunity for many senior professional teams.

The customized logistics solutions of brands have high requirements for the team's ability and resource allocation, and require the logistics enterprise to have a composite team. In order to meet the needs of customers, enterprises can customize the existing services, so that enterprises can be deeply embedded in the customer supply chain, and finally form a service closed loop.

Third, cross-border e-commerce and brand going to sea need the ability to perform global supply chain services.

It is also a trend to take a global view and go abroad to copy China's mature and excellent e-commerce logistics model, localized regional express delivery network, e-commerce return warehouse, one-piece consignment warehouse, etc. to some developing countries overseas and play in the overseas local commercial express delivery network.

Taking the Southeast Asian market as an example, there are at least dozens of enterprises operating special lines for Southeast Asia in the market. However, only a few enterprises can deeply cultivate in a Southeast Asian country and do their business well, professionally and thoroughly. Many enterprises are more inclined to resource integration.

Only by means of scientific and technological means, localized services, and from the perspective of improving customer experience, can we gain greater opportunities to build ourselves into a real regional local brand by deeply working and optimizing customs clearance, distribution, the last mile and other links.

At the same time, many giants in the industry have very large M & A intentions for regional express companies in a vertical segment. It is also a good opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises to expand and strengthen the regional and localized express brands and then sell them to upstream or leading enterprises.

For example, the top10 enterprises in the 2022 Xiaosheng ranking list are typical representatives. Perhaps some of them will become acquirers of regional and localized express brands. For the leading enterprises that have only laid out a certain field, it is very valuable to integrate small enterprises to make up for new territory and lines.

Now, upstream shipping companies and airlines have begun to set up their own logistics companies to develop end-to-end business. Therefore, airlines and shipping companies can also become very good investors or acquirers.

In addition, some overseas local regional e-commerce platforms, in order to make up for their own logistics weaknesses, will also become the object of in-depth cooperation with regional express delivery providers, not limited to investment and M & A.

Now the global postal service is facing the problem of commercialization. It is difficult to commercialize only by relying on its own internal transformation. Therefore, postal service is bound to complete its own commercialization transformation by integrating and acquiring some commercial express companies. This is also a good opportunity for enterprises.

In general, enterprises that focus on the expansion of overseas markets, the building of localized service capabilities, and the improvement of the brand's omni-channel supply chain will still have the potential and opportunities to become bigger and stronger in the future.

Source / cross border e-commerce logistics baixiaosheng (id:kjbaixiaoshen)



Author / wangyongqiang