Research and judgment: how much way does domestic cold chain logistics have to go from stock to increment?
The following article comes from the cold chain Committee of the China Federation of things and is specially written by the author
Source / China Wulian cold chain Committee (ID: lenglian_56)
Author / Zhang signature
At the end of last year, the 14th five year plan for cold chain logistics development attracted great attention from the cold chain logistics industry and major media. It can be said that this is an important national industry plan that China's cold chain logistics industry has not had for many years and has been looking forward to for many years. Subsequently, heavy POLICIES continued to accelerate the implementation, and the industry boom reached a record high and will continue.
In January 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan for the construction of national backbone cold chain logistics bases, making systematic arrangements for the layout and construction of national backbone cold chain logistics bases during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Subsequently, the Ministry of transport, the State Railway Administration, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the State Post Office and China National Railway Group jointly issued the implementation opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of cold chain logistics transportation.
Analysts said that the national support policies for cold chain logistics continued to increase, which was conducive to the improvement of market concentration. The leading enterprises of cold chain logistics ushered in a period of rapid development and the explosive demand generated by the epidemic. The cold chain industry ushered in a strong outlet.
01
The future and current gap of cold chain logistics
An indisputable fact is that although China's cold chain logistics has developed rapidly in recent years, there is still a big gap compared with the advanced level of international cold chain logistics. This gap is precisely the future of China's cold chain logistics. This gap is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
The first is the lack of infrastructure. By the end of 2021, the cold chain circulation rate in developed countries has basically reached more than 85%, while that in China is only 19%; Among them, the proportion of pre cooled fruits and vegetables is generally 10%, while that in developed countries is as high as 95% - 100%.
On the surface, the reason for this gap seems to be that the supply side of the cold chain can not keep up with the demand side. However, the problem lies in the small quantity and poor quality of cold chain infrastructure such as cold storage and refrigerated vehicles. For this reason, the industrial work of cold chain infrastructure construction has been mentioned by the state to the height of Rural Revitalization in the new era. In February 2021, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating agricultural and rural modernization clearly pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of the construction project of cold chain logistics facilities for storage and preservation of agricultural products, and promote the construction of small-scale storage and preservation cold chain facilities in Tiantou and low-temperature direct sales and distribution centers in producing areas.
Secondly, the industry concentration is low. With the increasing popularity of fresh e-commerce, although there have been industry leaders represented by Shunfeng cold chain, there has not been an enterprise comparable to the international cold chain giants.
Third, the modern cold chain logistics system of "from farmland to dining table" has not been really formed. Taking fresh agricultural products as an example, the data show that at present, the total demand for food cold chain logistics in China reaches 213 million tons, of which fresh agricultural products account for the largest proportion. The current situation of cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products can reflect the overall level of cold chain logistics.
Due to the serious shortage of infrastructure in the origin of agricultural products, the whole process cold chain of fresh agricultural products in China has not been formed in the whole country. Therefore, nowadays, it is rare to see refrigerated trucks full of agricultural products running on the road, and more are heavily covered greenhouse cars, commonly known as the "cold chain puppet army". In this regard, the practices of European and American countries are not only worth "opening our eyes", but also worth "taking". This whole process cold chain includes not only the basic requirements of temperature control, but also the relevant standards and regulations on the production, processing, sales, packaging, transportation, storage, labeling, quality grade and pesticide residue content of agricultural products. It has systematic management and strong operability, so as to finally realize the safety control and management of agricultural products in the whole process of "from farmland to dining table" cold chain logistics.
02
He who does not seek a long time cannot seek a short time
China's cold chain logistics first appeared in the 1960s. The main transportation objects are meat, poultry and aquatic products. It was not until the mid-1990s that the cold chain logistics industry in the modern sense was gradually formed. Although the development time of modern cold chain logistics in China is not long, the accumulated experience and lessons are very rich. It is of great practical and far-reaching significance to learn these experiences and lessons and see the future development and changes of the industry as soon as possible. The continuous implementation of heavy policies such as the 14th five year plan for cold chain logistics development is an accurate study and prediction of China's cold chain logistics development in the next five years under the background of the industry. It mainly includes the following two aspects:
First, study and judge the stock market of cold chain logistics
The research and judgment on the development of cold chain logistics is based on the correct analysis and judgment of the stock market of cold chain logistics. In the past years and even at present, the biggest development weakness of the cold chain industry is precisely reflected in the blind investment and competition for the stock market. At present, more than 80% of the cold chain logistics enterprises have been blindly competing for the stock market.
What is the stock market of cold chain? Generally include: cold chain business orders brought by food production enterprises, catering chains and supermarket chains. As we all know, efficiency, quality and cost are always the three contradictory elements in the cold chain logistics industry. There is only a relative balance point between the three, and each party a enterprise has different understanding and acceptance of the balance point, so many are constantly reducing the cold chain logistics cost; However, if the cost is too low, we must make sacrifices in terms of efficiency and quality; Logistics costs also have a bottom line after all. When Party A's customers start to squeeze the cold chain logistics costs blindly through low-cost bidding, the balance ecology among efficiency, quality and cost will be broken.
For a long time in the past, because most cold chain logistics enterprises were seizing the so-called stock market, the growth rate of cold chain market demand could not reach the growth rate of cold chain logistics enterprises. When we found that the profitability of this market began to become difficult, this market has actually become a "Red Sea" market.
Second, predict the future incremental market of cold chain logistics
In the past, when it came to the cold chain market, people first saw the goods in the freezer on the market. In addition, there were fresh agricultural products in the farmers' market. However, this concept is far from keeping up with the needs of the development of the situation.
First, imported cold chain food is gaining momentum. With the increasing influence of the Expo, facing the blue ocean of the imported cold chain food market in the past, some cold chain enterprises have begun to anchor and set sail. According to statistics, the total amount of imported food in China exceeded US $100 billion in 2021. Even under the influence of the epidemic, the import of meat and meat products still reached 9.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%, the import of aquatic products was 550 tons, the import of dairy products was 3.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the import of fruit was 6.302 million tons. According to the average cold chain logistics cost of 6%, the cold chain logistics market scale of imported food is close to 50 billion yuan. We have reason to believe that the cold chain of imported food, as an emerging stock + incremental market, will develop faster in the future.
The second is the normalization of e-commerce cold chain supply chain.
The huge impact of the COVID-19 on the e-commerce cold chain supply chain should not be underestimated. It not only allows more consumers, including the elderly consumers who never touched online shopping in the past, to join the online shopping army of fresh food materials, but also lays a solid foundation for the formation of a broader catering food material supply chain in the future. Cold chain logistics will be the focus of the distribution of food material supply chain enterprises.
The ancients said: "those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough to seek a corner; those who do not seek a long time are not enough to seek a moment". For a cold chain logistics enterprise, if it can not see the overall situation and plan its own development from the perspective of long-term interests, the development of the enterprise will inevitably hit a wall everywhere, and will always lag behind the development of the industry. It will not have any leading advantage, but it is likely to be a short-lived enterprise, and even be eliminated by the tide of industry development.
03
New base, new infrastructure and new model
Based on the scientific research and prediction of the future development of cold chain logistics, at the press conference held by the national development and Reform Commission on December 13 last year, Zhang Jiangbo, leader of the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission, revealed that by 2025, China will build about 100 national backbone cold chain logistics bases. In order to promote the construction of the national backbone cold chain logistics base with high quality, the national development and Reform Commission will focus on the combination of "three enhancements". The first is to strengthen the strategic positioning, the second is to strengthen the overall layout, and the third is to strengthen policy support.
The high-rise has set the tone, the direction has been pointed out, and the road has been opened. In the future, for the builders and future successors of the first batch of national backbone cold chain logistics bases, it is how to turn the national top-level design into concrete actions. So, in practice, how should the development direction of the national backbone cold chain logistics base be reflected? The author believes that it is roughly reflected in three aspects: new base, new infrastructure and new model. It is gratifying that the first batch of 17 national backbone cold chain logistics bases that have been implemented have made preliminary exploration in these three aspects and achieved successful experience.
——This base is not that base
At the press conference held by the national development and Reform Commission, Zhang Jiangbo pointed out that the construction of national backbone cold chain logistics base is an important work during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will promote the formation of national backbone cold chain logistics infrastructure network, support the construction of three-level cold chain logistics nodes with national backbone cold chain logistics base as the core, and help build a "321" cold chain logistics operation system, That is to build a cold chain logistics operation system with integration and linkage of "three-level nodes, two systems and integrated network".
Therefore, if the competent government departments in the area where the national backbone cold chain logistics base is located want to put the base construction on the agenda, it must be clear that this base is not the other base. The national backbone cold chain logistics base is by no means equivalent to the original regional cold chain logistics base, nor the expansion of the scale and quantity based on the original base. First of all, we must clarify the new concept of its new base.
This new concept is that all cold chain logistics enterprises, large or small, within the radiation range of the base should become members of the base, carry out benign industry competition, and emerge the leading enterprises of the base on this basis. In the construction process of the base, the invisible hand of the government should play an irreplaceable role. For example, the competent department of Jinan municipal government made it clear at the beginning of the construction of the base that it is necessary to establish a coordination mechanism for the work of the base, pay close attention to the construction of fine facilities, mode innovation, capacity improvement, resource integration, connectivity, standardized development, food safety and other construction work, and give full play to the demonstration and leading role of the national backbone cold chain logistics base.
——This infrastructure is not that infrastructure
The new infrastructure is by no means the concept of hardware facilities in the logistics industry. The new infrastructure of cold chain logistics is not only the number of new cold storages and vehicles, but also the new upgrading and transformation on the original basis. The so-called new is mainly in the digitization of new industries. In order to realize cost reduction and efficiency increase in cold chain logistics, industrial digitization is one of the insurmountable important measures. Therefore, at the beginning of the construction of backbone cold chain logistics base, we must integrate the concepts of digitization, informatization and intelligence into the overall planning of the base.
For many years, the information island phenomenon of cold chain logistics has always existed. Many enterprises have a common feeling that enterprises are like ships sailing on the vast sea. They are very close to each other, but they can't see each other clearly. The solution of this problem can not rely solely on the enterprise itself, but must be solved from the overall height of the industry. The most effective way to solve this problem is to build an information platform in an industrial highland such as beacon lights, so that all enterprises can see each other on this platform and exchange resources on the basis of cooperation and mutual benefit. The base is just such a platform. This aspect is no longer a technical problem, especially in today's digital industry. Through technologies such as big data and cloud computing, we have realized low-cost and efficient precision marketing and scene realization; The Internet of things has realized the interconnection of all things with low cost and high efficiency. The new infrastructure can accurately connect the supply and demand relationship at low cost; Complete the service layout of high-precision products at near zero cost, and realize the accurate pull of fresh supply to consumption; The seamless connection of precooling, refrigeration, cold transportation and cold distribution is realized at near zero cost. While building the base information platform, the combination of new infrastructure and new base will also help to establish information cooperation between domestic bases and bases and with foreign countries.
——This mode is not that mode
The development of enterprises settled in the base needs not only the support of new infrastructure, but also the change and improvement of their own business model. This change is mainly reflected in the change of function. In this regard, according to the official website of the national development and Reform Commission, Jinan national backbone cold chain logistics base has a clear positioning, that is, to realize two functions:
The first is the upward function of agricultural products. Focusing on the local advantageous agricultural production areas and consumer demand, optimize the supply chain of agricultural products in the county, promote the export of agricultural products from the village to the city, strengthen the construction of hubs and bases, build a cold chain system of large agricultural production bases, supporting infrastructure, improve the added value of products, and form a wide range of production areas, low operation cost, high use efficiency "Production, processing, storage, transportation, sales and consumption" integrated cold chain logistics system.
Second, the import and export function of agricultural products, through the advantage of centralized supply chain finance of the base, low-cost procurement, the use of high-standard inspection sites to ensure the quality, export high-quality meat from local countries and import high-quality agricultural products from more than 30 countries and regions around the world, form a chain of rapid services such as international freight transportation, warehousing and customs declaration, and promote the development of import and export trade in Shandong Province and Jinan City. For another example, Dongguan national backbone cold chain logistics base will be built into a cold chain logistics base radiating Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area with high-end technology and perfect cold chain supply chain services. The national backbone cold chain logistics base will lead the development of cold chain industry in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area, forming an industrial cluster of manufacturing and services, online and offline integrated development.
The function and orientation are clear, and the new development model of cold chain logistics enterprises is free. Naturally, all localities can formulate the service functions and new development models of enterprises of the cold chain logistics base in the region according to the local actual situation, and the above practices in Jinan, Dongguan and other regions can be regarded as a good reference.
Source / China Wulian cold chain Committee (ID: lenglian_56)
Author / Zhang signature