Research and judgment: the cross-border logistics market has reversed in 2022. Where have all the goods gone?
Source / cross border e-commerce logistics Bai Xiaosheng (ID: kjbaixiaoshen) author / Wang Yongqiang
The flow dividend on the consumer side peaked and the purchasing power decreased
1. The epidemic situation abroad is "lying flat", and the online traffic bonus is at the top
At present, many countries in Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have taken "lying flat" measures to prevent and control the COVID-19 through the implementation of measures such as mass vaccination and effective drug treatment. Instead of strictly sealing and controlling, they have gradually liberalized.
As we all know, the industry dividends obtained from export trade, cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics in the past two years are essentially the flow dividends transferred from the original offline flow to the online flow during the epidemic.
Therefore, thanks to the relaxation of foreign epidemic prevention measures, the foreign offline consumption scene is gradually recovering, the online traffic dividend gradually subsides, and the "epidemic dividend" of cross-border e-commerce industry gradually shows a phased peaking trend.
In this context, the overall traffic of mainstream e-commerce platforms shows a downward trend, and the cost of online sellers to obtain traffic is becoming higher and higher. When the sales volume is lower than expected and the orders are gradually reduced, the seller will adopt a more cautious stock strategy.
Take Amazon platform as an example. According to the data of marketplace pulse, the click price of Amazon advertising has increased from $0.93 at the beginning of the year to $1.33 at the end of 2021, an increase of 43%. Compared with the rise of advertising price, the average conversion rate of advertising has remained stable at 12% - 13%.
For sellers, the cost of obtaining traffic is getting higher and higher, but there is no direct relationship between income and expenditure. Therefore, all channels of cross-border e-commerce logistics are now facing a problem: out of stock!
2. The end of the era of money distribution and the decline of consumers' purchasing power
Although the dividend of online traffic has peaked, foreign people still need to consume.
We believe that the essence of e-commerce growth during the epidemic period is partly due to the consumption motivation supported by traffic, and the other part is due to the fiscal and monetary stimulus policies adopted by some overseas countries represented by the United States.
For example, in the trump era, in March 2020, the United States issued a fiscal stimulus plan with a total amount of about $2 trillion to prevent the U.S. economy from falling into a deep recession due to the impact of the epidemic. This is the largest fiscal stimulus plan in U.S. history. Biden era, through a new round of $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.
Every time the government's "money throwing" economic stimulus policy is introduced, consumers' consumption desire will become particularly strong. In the past two years, even if the congestion of American ports has not been alleviated, the American people still maintain strong consumption.
Today, fiscal and monetary stimulus policies similar to this direct "cash injection" are gradually decreasing or even withdrawing, which has affected the consumption motivation, purchase desire and ability of overseas people.
In April, the latest data released by the Bureau of labor statistics showed that the CPI of the United States increased by 8.5% year-on-year in March, the fastest growth rate since December 1981, that is, the highest level in more than 40 years. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI exceeded 6% for the sixth consecutive month.
Among them, the core CPI (excluding the prices of food, energy and other products affected by seasons and supply) rose by 0.3% month on month, the highest increase in 40 years.
This shows that the inflation level in the United States is still high.
In the period of inflation, the most obvious feeling is that "money is worthless", which will directly increase the financial pressure of American consumers and make consumers more sensitive to product prices.
3. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, consumers adopt a conservative strategy
The rise in the prices of international commodities such as crude oil, grain and minerals caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine indirectly led to the rise in the costs of daily necessities and transportation and logistics, which brought greater uncertainty to the recovery of the world economy in the later stage of the epidemic.
In April, the annual forecast report on Global trade released by the WTO showed that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would have a negative impact on the recovery of Global trade.
Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the volume of world commodity trade will increase by 3.0% in 2022, which is lower than the previously predicted 4.7%; The growth rate in 2023 is 3.4%.
According to the simulation prediction of WTO economists, the global economy calculated at market exchange rate in 2022 is expected to grow by 2.8%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previously predicted 4.1%.
In 2023, the global economic growth will rebound to 3.2%, close to the average growth rate of 3.0% from 2010 to 2019.
In the context of uncertain economic recovery, consumers in most countries in the world will lack confidence in the future economy and adopt a conservative consumption strategy.
Only when consumers have sufficient confidence in their income expectations and the country's economic development will their desire and purchasing power rise.
4. Southeast Asia resumed work and production, and trade orders shifted
If online consumption is insufficient, do consumers turn to offline consumption scenarios and purchase through B2B bulk trade? In particular, as the world's largest exporter, in theory, when cross-border e-commerce B2C orders decrease, offline B2B orders should increase.
However, from the current situation of the whole logistics end, there is not much growth in the volume of traditional trade, or even a decline.
The stagnation of production and sluggish supply chain caused by the epidemic in the past two years have given a good opportunity for China's foreign trade, resulting in a large number of foreign trade orders pouring into China, of which a large part of the increase comes from transfer orders from Southeast Asian countries.
Today, neighboring countries such as Southeast Asia and ASEAN have begun to gradually return to work and production. For example, Vietnam's foreign trade development momentum is very strong.
Since the opening of entry in mid March, Vietnam's total import and export of goods trade in March reached US $66.73 billion, an increase of 36.8% month on month. Among them, exports reached 34.06 billion US dollars, an increase of 45.5%; Imports reached 32.67 billion US dollars, an increase of 28.7%. In addition, in March, Vietnam also held a foreign trade exhibition.
In contrast, at home, it will take some time to liberalize the epidemic control or the border.
The resumption of work and production in Southeast Asian countries will return their orders from China to Southeast Asia, resulting in a phased decline and adjustment in the relevant data of China's exports, foreign trade and cross-border e-commerce.
This phenomenon is reflected in the cross-border logistics industry, which is that the prices in the European and American markets do not go up, but the freight rates in Southeast Asia rise.
Recently, the goods to Southeast Asia have been in a relatively stable state. In North China, the prices of sea routes to Southeast Asia are still rising, and some freight rates have even increased by more than 50%,
02
The supply side looks at the future trend of the industry from a global perspective
1. The periodic shortage of transport capacity has been alleviated
In 2020, shipping companies, airlines and freight forwarding enterprises have made good profits. In 2021, these enterprises began to purchase transport capacity and layout infrastructure resources. For example, some air freight companies increased the configuration of all cargo aircraft, some shipping companies began to order new ships, and Maersk, CMA and other shipping companies even began to buy all cargo aircraft to establish freight airlines. In addition, Some freight forwarders and charter companies have also changed and established Cargo Airlines.
In the past two years, the industry has added many orders for all cargo aircraft and new ships. According to the latest container forecast report released by Drewry, a famous shipping consulting organization, it is estimated that in terms of ship ordering, shipping companies will order a record 548 ships with 4.2 million TEUs in 2021, and the total number of contracts will reach 5.7 million TEUs.
Generally, the delivery period is 2-3 years. Therefore, from the second half of this year to next year, many new ships and cargo aircraft will be put into use on the market, and a large amount of transport capacity will be added to the market. The transport capacity at the supply side of the industry has changed greatly, and the phased shortage of transport capacity has been alleviated.
In addition, the main reason for the high air freight during the epidemic is that a large number of international passenger flights have been grounded, the belly cabin capacity of passenger aircraft has been greatly reduced, and the capacity resources of all cargo aircraft are very limited, which has driven the rise of international air freight all the way.
At present, more and more countries begin to relax international travel restrictions, open borders and allow international flights to go around gradually. With the increasing number of cross-border business trips, the capacity of passenger aircraft belly cabin in other countries except China will be gradually restored, which also reduces the dependence on all cargo aircraft to a certain extent.
The development of the global cross-border logistics industry should not be viewed only from the supply and demand side of China, but from the dimensions of global economy, industrial revitalization and changes in epidemic prevention policies.
2. The domestic epidemic counterattack has affected the supply chain, and the freight has changed in stages
At present, the epidemic in East China is still continuing, leading to the blockage of the production and supply chain of many industries in China, including automobile, clothing, electronic 3C and other products.
Because the supply chain of these products is very long, and some of them are located in East China, if one factory on the chain cannot resume production, or the downstream lacks some raw materials and parts, the whole supply chain will not run smoothly, resulting in many foreign trade orders can not be delivered on time, and more and more orders will be destroyed.
Taking the seasonal foreign trade products clothing as an example, there are many clothing production enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta. Generally, the production factories will produce summer clothes in the first quarter and the second quarter. But now affected by the epidemic, the factory can not return to work as scheduled, and the warehouse has stored a large number of raw materials for summer clothes.
If the late resumption of work is in summer, then the clothes produced will be sent overseas, and the best sales season will be missed. This is undoubtedly worse for export factories and foreign trade enterprises with seasonal sales cycle.
For foreign enterprises, it is impossible not to produce orders. If Chinese suppliers delay in delivery frequency and delivery time, foreign enterprises will transfer orders to other countries with more guaranteed delivery time and logistics.
In addition, at present, the high logistics freight of China's exports to other countries does not mean that the freight of other countries' exports to third-party countries is also high.
For example, the high freight rate of China's exports to European and American countries does not necessarily mean that the freight rate of Southeast Asian countries to European and American countries will be higher than that of China, and the rise of freight rate will also change periodically.
Therefore, at present, the so-called "inner volume" in the industry is more the inner volume among sellers, platforms and surrounding service providers in the industry. But in fact, we are not just competing with domestic competitors, but with competitors in different dimensions around the world.
Roll inward and see the phased end of the era of huge profits brought by the epidemic!
Roll out, practice your internal skills hard, and participate in the global competition from a higher dimension!
Source / cross border e-commerce logistics Bai Xiaosheng (ID: kjbaixiaoshen) author / Wang Yongqiang