Hot discussion: the oil price is close to 10 yuan, how does logistics express affect? Responses from several listed companies

Source / Hexun stock (id:istocknews)





Affected by the surging international oil prices, a new round of oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on June 14, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 390 yuan and 375 yuan per ton respectively. The retail price of domestic refined oil rose for the 10th time in the year.

The fluctuation of oil price will directly affect the transportation cost of express industry. According to the statistics of Guohai Securities (000750), the transportation cost accounts for about 26% of the access cost of the franchise system, while the fuel cost accounts for about 25% of the transportation cost; For SF, a direct operating enterprise, the transportation cost accounts for about 11% of the cost, and the fuel cost accounts for about 30% of the transportation cost of SF.

The industry pointed out that crude oil price fluctuations have an impact on raw material costs, but there is a certain transmission cycle. The express industry is an industry with strong scale effect. The continuous promotion of scale growth and refined management will lead to the improvement of loading rate and the optimization of lines, which is expected to dilute the new fuel costs. The actual impact of rising oil prices on the transportation costs of the express industry is limited.



01




The oil price is close to the "10 yuan mark"



On June 14, the national development and Reform Commission announced that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current oil product price formation mechanism, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 390 yuan and 375 yuan per ton respectively since 24:00 on June 14.

Take Beijing as an example. According to the announcement issued by the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in Beijing will be increased by 390 yuan and 375 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on June 14. Specifically, 89 gasoline was adjusted from 8.44 yuan per liter to 8.73 yuan, an increase of 0.29 yuan; 92 gasoline was adjusted from 9.01 yuan per liter to 9.33 yuan, an increase of 0.32 yuan; 95 gasoline was adjusted from 9.59 yuan per liter to 9.93 yuan, an increase of 0.34 yuan; 0 diesel oil was adjusted from 8.77 yuan per liter to 9.10 yuan, an increase of 0.33 yuan.

The industry believes that the "initiator" of the rise in domestic refined oil prices lies in the soaring international crude oil prices caused by the turbulence of the international situation. During the current round of refined oil price adjustment, Europe announced the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, and Russian oil exports are expected to be suppressed; Although "OPEC +" has increased production, the market has doubts about its actual production increase effect; The global oil demand is in the peak season, and the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States has boosted the gasoline demand. Therefore, the international oil price has operated strongly and reached the second highest level in the year.

As of the close of last Friday, the international oil price had risen for the seventh consecutive week, reaching $120 / barrel. Xi Jiarui, a crude oil analyst at jinlianchuang, predicted that the pace for crude oil prices to refresh the highest price in history is approaching. After entering the third quarter, the mainstream operating range of WTI crude oil futures may reach USD 105-135 / barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures is about USD 110-140 / barrel. Goldman Sachs also predicted in its report at the beginning of June that the Brent crude oil price in the third quarter was $140 / barrel (previously expected to be $125 / barrel) and that in the fourth quarter was $130 / barrel (previously expected to be $125 / barrel).



02




Logistics industry meets new challenges



Since this year, affected by the epidemic situation, express delivery in some sealed areas has been suspended and logistics has been blocked. In April, the express delivery industry was seriously impacted by the epidemic. The city represented by Shanghai was sealed, a large area of trunk vehicles were stranded, and the freight logistics was not smooth. According to the operation of the express industry in April released by the State Post Office, the express business completed 7.48 billion pieces in April, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; The business income reached RMB 74.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.

With the control of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places, the resumption of express business in Shanxi, and the introduction of a number of official relief policies, the overall orderly operation of the national freight logistics. Just as the logistics industry continues to recover, how does the rise in oil prices affect express delivery enterprises?

Guohai Securities research report pointed out that oil price fluctuations will directly affect the transportation costs of the express industry. In terms of the cost structure of express delivery enterprises, the transportation cost is the main cost source of the franchise system, accounting for about 26% of the cost, while the fuel cost accounts for about 25% of the transportation cost; For SF, a direct operating enterprise, labor cost is the main cost source, and the transportation cost accounts for about 11% of the cost. As the transportation mode involves land transportation and aviation, the fuel cost accounts for about 30% of the transportation cost of SF.

Guohai Securities further pointed out that the actual impact of rising oil prices on the transportation costs of the express industry is limited. According to rough estimation, the 10% increase in fuel price will have an impact on the annual cost of express enterprises of about RMB 100million-400million, accounting for 4%-14% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the current year, but the actual impact rate is lower than the estimated value.

In addition, the express industry is an industry with strong scale effect. The continuous promotion of scale growth and refined management will lead to the improvement of loading rate and the optimization of lines, which is expected to dilute the new fuel costs. Supported by the continuous consolidation of the stability of the industry structure, Tongda and SF are expected to transmit the pressure of variable costs to the downstream through price increases in the future, and successfully improve their anti inflation ability through price increases.



03




Listed companies "see the bidding and remove the bidding"



Several interactive platforms of listed companies responded to the possibility that rising oil prices might increase costs.

Some companies consider raising prices to hedge against the impact of rising oil prices. Yongtaiyun said that the rise in oil prices will increase the cost of the company's road transportation business, and the company will formulate corresponding price strategies in time in combination with market conditions. Lian long (300596) responded that the crude oil price fluctuation has an impact on the company's raw material cost, but there is a certain transmission cycle, and the product price will be adjusted according to the raw material price fluctuation. In its 2021 annual report, SF Holdings (002352) pointed out that transportation cost is one of the main costs in the express industry, and fuel cost is an important part of transportation cost. The fluctuation of fuel price will have a certain impact on the profit level of express enterprises. If the fuel price rises sharply in the future, the company will have certain pressure on rising costs.

Some companies have made layout in the field of new energy. Pulutong (002769) said that the company has established Shenzhen Purui Times Energy Co., Ltd., whose business involves the field of new energy; And invested in Guangdong xibainian Supply Chain Technology Co., Ltd. through finance, which mainly provides supply chain logistics solutions for 3C battery, power battery, new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, new energy storage and other enterprises. The company will continue to look for opportunities in the field of new energy supply chain management.

SF Holdings said that it would further optimize the layout of outlets, improve the scientificity of route planning and the loading rate of operating routes, and improve the efficiency of resource use. Secondly, the company has made greater efforts to promote the use of new energy vehicles to reduce the risk of fuel price fluctuations to a certain extent.

Zeng Chen, vice president of JD group, said that JD has put 20000 new energy vehicles into use in more than 50 cities. Among them, Beijing has been switched to new energy vehicles. In addition to charging new energy vehicles, JD is also exploring the application of power exchange technology and hydrogen energy vehicle technology. It plans to complete the testing of these two technologies and put them into use in the first half of 2022. By 2030, all vehicles will be replaced by new energy vehicles.

Pan Helin, CO director and researcher of the digital economy and financial innovation research center of the International United Business School of Zhejiang University, once said that at present, the express companies still have a situation of oversupply, so low price competition has always existed. The price increase in the express industry may be detrimental to the e-commerce industry and weaken the competitiveness of express companies. He said that the best way for express companies to get out of the dilemma is to optimize the logistics system to make the logistics system more efficient and operate at a lower cost, so that they can participate in the competition at a lower cost. In the future, the ultimate focus of competition in the express industry, whether it is SF, JD, or "four links and one Da" and "Jitu", will be to compete for the efficiency of logistics.

Source / Hexun stock (id:istocknews)