Forget the peak season and cross the periodic trough of the cross-border logistics industry

Forwarded from Jiuzhou Logistics Network 2022-10-28

1. Will there be a peak season this year?

There are only two months left before 2023. Many enterprises are asking: Will there be a peak season this year?

In the cross-border logistics industry, the traditional peak season was from September to December. Now it is the end of October, and the market situation is still relatively low. Recently, the sea freight price of the US line has dropped below 3000 dollars, and the air freight price of the European and American lines also hovers around 20-30 yuan/KG.

For the agents who hold a large number of shipping companies and shipping companies' fixed position contracts, the shortage of goods in the first 10 months of this year due to low market demand is almost in a relatively large loss state. Can the losses in the first 10 months be reversed in the next 2 months?

The drop of ocean freight is even more exaggerated, with a drop of about 70% or 80%. It is difficult to return to the high point of last year. Now many agents have stopped performing the contract or renegotiated the contract price with the shipping company. Prices are likely to remain low. But it is not too low, because the shipping company alliance will control the freight rate in a reasonable range by reducing the supply of transport capacity.

At the same time, cross-border logistics enterprises face different market conditions in different regions.

In the mainstream markets in Europe and the United States, due to the European energy crisis, high inflation, soaring costs and insufficient consumption power led to a decline in demand. In the US market, the economy has gradually started to improve in recent months, and the inflation problem has eased. Therefore, compared with Europe, the prospect of the US market will be better, and consumer demand is gradually recovering.

In emerging markets, the potential of Southeast Asia, South America, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and other regions concerned by the industry is still great.

In the Southeast Asian market, there are many domestic participants. Although the competition is very fierce, it is still in the stage of sustainable development. There is still great demand and there are still opportunities to explore; The performance of the South American market is relatively bright, with a large increase; The Middle East and Africa are currently at the stage of gestation and development, with great potential opportunities.

Therefore, whether there is a peak season or not should also be specifically analyzed. Although some mainstream markets are cold, not all markets are bad.



2. Economic downturn, enterprises need to hide their strength

At present, many cross-border logistics enterprises and practitioners have felt the inner volume of the industry.

In the face of the cold winter, enterprises that are not hopeful about this peak season need not be pessimistic. They still have to live on, and there are still many things to do.

Some small and medium-sized companies, without too much operating pressure, can focus on the internal construction of the enterprise, improve the team's professional ability and cohesion, and properly "lay flat". recuperate and build up energy.

Large companies have high daily operating costs, which does not mean that they can "lie flat". While training their internal skills, they should also try to find the second growth curve to increase the source of income.

In the face of declining business, large enterprises should break through the bottleneck. On the one hand, they should have the courage to break their arms to survive, and on the other hand, they should seek new increments to make up for it, which is a great test for operators and decision-makers.

In general, in the economic downturn, enterprises need to hide their strength and improve their core competitiveness.

Everything has a cycle, and every industry has its ups and downs. The current "volume" of cross-border logistics does not mean that the industry is no longer viable. Besides, when it comes to volume, it also depends on which industries it is compared with. Compared with tourism, catering, hotels, entertainment and other industries, cross-border logistics has been a very good industry during the epidemic.

In the past few years of the epidemic, many companies have made the first barrel of money, had some primitive accumulation, and then had the capital to resist risks.

With the continuous development of the industry, more and more players join this track. The era of making fast money will eventually pass. When it comes to the stage of real competition for strength and internal skills, you can no longer think about the future with the idea of making fast money.

3. Forget the peak season, cultivate internal skills and grasp the pulse of the industry

In the short term, there are many uncertain factors in the whole industry. External factors include the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the US dollar interest rate increase, and internal policy scales for epidemic control. These are uncontrollable, so it is difficult to predict the market prospect next year.

When the market is clear, take the initiative to attack. When the prospect is uncertain, stay dormant and observe. Those who know current affairs are outstanding. In the face of these uncertainties in the future, cross-border logistics companies need to be more aware of the current industry and their own status quo and take precautions.

It is not so important whether there is a peak season or not. Instead, enterprises should forget the peak season and make layout and planning from a more long-term perspective.

With the trend of fragmentation of trade, orders are fragmented. In addition, the congestion of the supply chain is alleviated. Consumers and sellers no longer need to hoard a lot of goods. Consumption is becoming more rational, and the quantity of goods will enter a relatively stable stage.

In order to seize more markets and explore more opportunities in the future, we need to continue to deepen our own areas of advantage, broaden our borders, make our business more diversified, and enhance our ability to resist risks.

In order to survive the cold winter and have a long-term foothold in the industry, we should not stick to the temporary profits and losses, but use the perspective of long-term doctrine to consolidate the basic skills, and have more comprehensive strength, so that we can flexibly respond to the changes in the industry.

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