Forecast of air cargo market trend in the fourth quarter
Forwarded from Jiuzhou Logistics Network 2022-10-19
Recently, Vincent Wong, director of Asian air transport of C.H. Robinson, shared the influencing factors of air cargo market in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Vincent Wong said: "In terms of transport capacity supply, the overall transport capacity is still sufficient, except for the occasional cancellation of flights by airlines on major trade lines. In this case, such shippers who will jointly review their overall transport demand with freight forwarders and know how to make good use of cost-effective solutions in the current market will get corresponding returns."
Weak air transport market
Compared with the past two years, the upcoming air freight peak season this year is relatively weak. The air freight market is unstable and uncertain in the coming months, which is mainly affected by the following five factors:
1. Geopolitical situation
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the increase of supply chain liquidity in the global environment have made the market unpredictable and unstable.
2. Energy crisis
Due to the energy challenges brought about by the Russian Ukrainian conflict, the production of Germany and other European countries has slowed down. Many large shippers booked orders at the beginning of the year to avoid supply chain disruption and are more cautious about new orders.
3. High inventory
Major developed economies have high inventories and high inflation. In order to cope with inflationary pressures, Europe, the United States and other countries have accelerated the tightening of monetary policies, increasing downward pressure on the world economy.
4. Changes in consumer buying behavior
Consumers shifted more spending to the service industry, reducing the demand for international shipping and air transportation to a certain extent.
5.Covid19
Due to the shortage of air cargo transport capacity, the strict implementation of the isolation policy after the landing of the crew, and the congestion of the Shanghai transport port and the rising cost, more carriers turned to air transport, the pressure faced by the global air cargo industry increased sharply.
It is predicted that the air rate will recover in the fourth quarter and the capacity will be sufficient
This year's freight demand is largely affected by the epidemic situation in Greater China. So far, the air rate has declined steadily. With the recovery of new PI demand in e-commerce and technology industries, it is expected that the air rate will remain at the current level and rise slightly in the fourth quarter.
With the relaxation of international travel restrictions and the reopening of the airport, the much anticipated belly cargo capacity will be restored and the overall transport capacity will be sufficient.
